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Watching mortgage rates bounce around over the past few weeks has been liable to give you whiplash. While the rest of the world was wringing its hands about stocks falling off a cliff, real estate investors were quietly crossing their fingers with news that mortgage rates had dropped to their lowest level in six months in the aftermath of President Trump’s tariff announcement.
On April 4, the Friday after Trump made the announcement, rates were around 6.55%, according to Redfin. By April 10, they were inching up closer to 7%. These dramatic shifts have made it almost impossible to predict monthly loan payments for prospective real estate investors.
According to Redfin, the decline in rates following the tariff announcement meant that a buyer on a $3,000 budget had roughly an extra $9,000 in purchasing power as rates fell from 6.82% on March 27 to 6.55% on April 4. On an average-priced home of $425,000, the brief interest rate drop would have lowered the payment by around $600, from $2,716 to $2,777. That has since been wiped out.
Don’t Expect a Market Crash
Redfin economics research lead Chen Zhao said:
“Even in times of great economic uncertainty, there are people who need to move. For those weary homebuyers, this drop in mortgage rates could be a silver lining of this week’s historic tariffs announcement. However, a word of caution for the general public: This is a wait-and-see moment. Tariffs and the fallout we’ve already seen in the stock market are impacting the economy and could create more volatility in the housing market.”
If we’ve learned anything from the last couple of weeks, it’s that real estate investors cannot rely on waiting and seeing. At this rate, we’ll be in our graves waiting for the right moment to buy. That’s because the longer we wait for the optimum moment, the more home prices will continue to increase, making it more difficult to qualify for loans and shrinking potential cash flow. Equally, a housing crash, dropping rates suddenly and increasing affordability, as what happened after 2008, seems increasingly unlikely.
A Meaningful Decline
“The record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a nonqualified mortgage lender, told Forbes. While investors pray for a rapid reduction in rates, dramatic falls lead to sudden price increases, which is detrimental to investing.
Rather, a gradual, ongoing decline is an ideal scenario. “A meaningful decline in mortgage rates would help both demand and supply—demand by boosting affordability, and supply by lessening the power of the mortgage rate lock-in effect,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, said in the company’s March report. “But the current high national debt will prevent mortgage rates from falling drastically—and certainly not to the 4%-to-5% range seen during President Trump’s first term.”
We’re in a catch-22 because for an increased supply of homes, the market easing and possibly prices lowering have to happen to boost builder confidence. That seems unlikely.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low-5% range,” Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm, told Forbes.
How Real Estate Investors Can “Game the System”
The only way to beat the uncertainty of rate fluctuations is to “game the system” by creating additional cash flow where none previously existed. This is achieved in two ways: increasing an asset’s rental income or managing to get a lower interest rate. There are practical ways to accomplish this.
Increasing cash flow
There are a few ways to increase cash flow without violating zoning restrictions:
- Short-term rentals: Changing a long-term rental to a short-term rental can boost cash flow if your property is located in an in-demand area that can attract year-round visitors. However, if your guests are seasonal, it’s probably best to stick with steady year-round tenants.
- Adding extra rental space: Finishing basements and attics and adding ADUs are practical ways to add rentable space. Whether you have long-term or short-term tenants, more space means more money.
- Renting parking spaces: This has taken off in the U.K. There’s even an app for regular homeowners to make the most of their parking spaces, earning big bucks during in-demand occasions such as New Year’s Eve, sporting events and graduations. Even though it hasn’t taken off in the U.S., there’s no reason for you not to charge your tenants for parking like hotels do, either as a separate fee or buffered into the overall rent.
- Renting by the room: Renting out rooms is an increasingly popular way to bump up cash flow if you don’t mind the additional management.
- Shared ownership: Combining resources for a small two-to-four-family building will allow you to buy a home for less out of pocket, using a co-buyer’s credit or income to qualify for a lower-rate mortgage, which could be all you need to start building equity with a tenant paying down your mortgage.
Getting a lower interest rate
Here are some ways to do this:
- Loan programs with low rates: As of April 10, the interest payment on a NACA home loan was 5.75%, a whole point lower than the national average. Moreover, these loans come with no down payment, closing costs, or PMI. There are income restrictions; you have to attend a NACA homebuying workshop, live in the home, and cannot own any other property at the time of purchase. However, for a rookie investor looking to get on the property ladder, this program and others like it are well worth investigating.
- Each state has its own homebuying program: So do major lenders such as Chase and Bank of America. Once you own the home and are living in it, you can be creative to help cover the mortgage and plan your next steps.
- Improve your credit score: This is obvious but often overlooked. A credit score above 720 will help you get the lowest rate possible.
- Consider your loan term: Extending your loan terms or seeing if your lender is open to a period of interest-only payments will help you lower your monthly payments.
- Make a larger down payment: In a high-interest rate environment, the last thing you want to do is over-leverage. A large down payment will keep you in good stead and get you the lowest rate possible. Should the rate drop, you can always do a cash-out refi.
- Buy mortgage points: This is another good short-term strategy if you have the cash to make your monthly payments more affordable.
- BRRRR investors can consider construction-to-permanent loans: These loans have the advantage over regular hard money loans because they do not need to be refinanced, meaning there is only one set of closing costs. Once construction is completed, they automatically turn into regular rate-and-term mortgages.
Final Thoughts
Keeping an eye on interest rates to pick the best time to buy is recommended, but rates alone should not deter you from purchasing real estate and investing. It’s easy to get bogged down in the weeds, fretting about rate changes from one week to the next. Instead, pick a strategy that works best for your situation, and when the time is right, jump in.
Real estate is a great equalizer if you can make your mortgage payments. Rising prices will ensure that everything works out in the end, with the added advantages of tax benefits, tenant payments, and increased equity along the way.
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