By Ken Donaven
As discussed in prior posts, the frequently used Brand Funnel is a core foundational element of any effective brand health research study. A cornerstone concept in both B2C and B2B brand evaluations, the brand funnel provides an essential framework for understanding how customers interact with brands, guiding everything from awareness (early) to advocacy (eventually).
It is that latter stage of advocacy at which another, more advanced model becomes extremely useful and actionable: The Apostle Model.
Studying and Visualizing Your Brand’s “Apostles”
This unique approach to customer segmentation provides valuable insights into different customer constituencies, allowing brands to understand both the fundamental drivers and financial impact of customer loyalty. By using “Apostle Analysis”, rather than looking at a survey respondent pool as one homogenous reflection of brand perception, brands can truly understand their customer base and identify opportunities to move customers from “danger zones” into more valuable customer cohorts.
To provide the greatest value, this methodology includes both customer satisfaction/loyalty metrics, along with some grounding in customer spending (annual spending, market/brand share, channel share, etc).:
Understanding Apostle Analysis
Apostle Analysis is a model that categorizes customers based on their likelihood to repurchase and their overall satisfaction with a brand. By using a structured framework, businesses can pinpoint their most valuable customers and identify at-risk segments. Typically, the model operates on a quadrant system using a seven-point scale, measuring two critical dimensions:
- Likelihood to Repurchase: How likely is a customer to continue purchasing from a brand?
- Overall Satisfaction: How satisfied is the customer with their overall experience with the brand?
From these metrics, customers are segmented into the following key groups:
1. Apostles (Highest Satisfaction, Highest Likelihood to Repurchase)
These customers are the gold standard. They not only spend more within the category but also spend disproportionately with a specific brand. Apostles act as brand evangelists, spreading positive word-of-mouth and increasing brand credibility.
2. Loyalists (High Satisfaction, High Likelihood to Repurchase)
Loyalists are valuable repeat customers who, while not as extreme in their satisfaction as apostles, still form the backbone of a strong customer base. Their satisfaction levels may not reach the peak, but they are reliable in their purchasing behavior.
3. Hostages (Low Satisfaction, High Likelihood to Repurchase)
A unique and often misunderstood segment, hostages continue purchasing despite dissatisfaction. This could be due to limited competition, contractual obligations, or necessity-driven purchases. However, these customers pose a significant risk—the moment an alternative arises, they will leave.
4. Mercenaries (High Satisfaction, Low Likelihood to Repurchase)
Mercenaries enjoy the product or service but are highly price-sensitive. They switch brands frequently based on price promotions, discounts, or convenience, making them less reliable for long-term revenue.
5. Defectors/Brand Antagonists (Low Satisfaction, Low Likelihood to Repurchase)
These customers are dissatisfied and have no loyalty to the brand. Worse, the “Antagonists” among this cohort (commonly referred to as “Brand Terrorists”) can actively damage a brand’s reputation through negative reviews and word-of-mouth.
“Apostles” are identified by how they rate the brand on two key loyalty metrics: likelihood to repurchase and overall satisfaction. For example, when given a scale of 1 to 7 against which to rate the brand, the Loyalist cohort will include anyone who rated the company a 6 or 7 for both loyalty metrics. Apostles, then, would be anyone who scores both attributes a 7 — these are the most loyal among your Loyalists, and these are true fans who can not only be retained easily, they can become ambassadors for the brand as well.
In this recently completed example, one-quarter of our client’s customers were Apostles while only 2% were brand terrorists.
Why Conduct an Apostle Analysis?
The value a company derives from its “Apostles” is almost always higher than the other, less loyal cohorts. Apostles are often brand advocates, and such individuals do some of the brand’s marketing and advertising for the brand. In addition, Apostles typically spend more, both in the category as a whole and with the brand in question.
As shown, this company’s Apostles spend at least 65% more in the category than other cohort.
Further, not only do these Apostles spend significantly more in the category, they spent nearly 90% of their dollars with the client’s brand.
With this in mind, the primary goal of Apostle Analysis is to help businesses identify opportunities to increase customer satisfaction and retention while mitigating risks associated with customer churn or flight. By analyzing these loyalty-based customer segments, brands can:
- Maximize Loyalists and Apostles: Understand key loyalty drivers to reinforce key performance attributes and maximize revenue among these key customer cohorts.
- Convert Hostages and Mercenaries: Identify pain points that can help turn hostages into satisfied loyalists and make mercenaries more brand-loyal.
- Mitigate Defector Risks: Address dissatisfaction drivers before customers leave to ensure better retention and reduce negative brand impact.
- Identify Critical Performance Gaps: Determine why Hostages are dissatisfied and why Mercenaries fail to commit.
- Focus on high-value customers: Ensure that investment is directed toward the most impactful and efficient allocation of resources, such as retaining Apostles rather than chasing Mercenaries.
Conducting an Apostle Analysis
Creating an Apostle Analysis entails multiple steps and analyses:
1. Collect Customer Data
To conduct Apostle Analysis, we gather survey-based insights to measure:
- Key Purchase Criteria – importance of key product/service attributes by cohort
- Customer satisfaction
- Overall satisfaction with the brand
- Likelihood to repurchase
- Spending behavior
- Additional insights into customer needs, preferences, and pain points
2. Determine Key Drivers of Satisfaction
As examined at length here, there are advanced methodologies for determining customers’ key purchase criteria—both stated by the customer and those often unstated in surveys and interviews. These may include:
- Product quality
- Customer service availability
- Pricing and value perception
- Ease of use
Understanding these drivers, both overall and by customer cohort, is key to designing strategies and addressing deficiencies.
3. Identify Key Purchase Criteria and Satisfaction by Cohort
Upon segmenting customers into the aforementioned quadrants (Loyalists, Hostages, Mercenaries, and Defectors), it is important to understand both key purchase drivers and satisfaction for each cohort. With this invaluable knowledge, the brand is armed with the intelligence to address multiple tactical and strategic questions:
- Where do we have performance gaps that must be addressed?
- How should we allocate marketing dollars?
- What messages should we communicate to our customers?
- How can we nurture and develop lower loyalty segments?
4. Determine Spending and Share by Cohort
As shown earlier, understanding respondent purchase behaviors (spending, brands purchased, channels used, etc.) is key to unlocking the value of the Apostle Analysis. While this is not a market sizing exercise per se, it includes many of the same metrics used to develop a triangulated market size for a given product:
- Purchase Incidence/Frequency: Identify customers who are in the market (typically past 12 months, but could be longer based on replacement rates, product life cycles, etc.) and how frequently they purchase
- Annual Spending: Determine annual spending for a product/category
- Brands Purchased: Understand “market/brand share” for respondents/cohorts (typically based on dollars spent)
- Channels Used: Quantify channel share (purchases, channel preferences)
Collectively, these metrics provide insight into the value of each respondent (ultimately, the value of each cohort). They may also provide deeper insight into the Hostage segment by identifying homogeneous purchase elements. For example, Hostages may be contractually tied to a specific brand or channel partner, resulting in a lack of choice regarding who they purchase.
5. Develop Targeted Strategies
Once key drivers of purchase are identified across customer cohorts, businesses can develop actionable strategies, such as:
- Product Enhancements: Addressing specific pain points, such as improving dexterity for protective gloves in industrial settings.
- Service Improvements: Expanding customer support availability or improvements to the online experience to better serve Hostages.
- Pricing Adjustments: Offering loyalty discounts or added value to retain high-spending Hostages.
- Messaging and Education: Ensuring customers are aware of underutilized features or benefits.
Turning Insights into Action
Apostle Analysis provides not only a snapshot of customer sentiment, but also a roadmap for enhancing brand loyalty and improving revenue and share. By identifying what matters most to different customer cohorts, businesses can optimize their strategies in marketing, product development, customer service, and sales.
The goal is to shift as many customers as possible into the Apostle category, ensuring long-term profitability and advocacy for the brand. These are the customers who tend to spend the most with a given brand and are the least likely to leave for a competitor. They also will often advocate on behalf of your brand, through referrals and positive product reviews, as previously stated
With data-informed insights, actions begin to present themselves:
- Where are there opportunities to improve either public perception or product performance so that we can convert customers in other quadrants into Loyalists, or even Apostles?
- Can we identify the gaps between what is important to Apostles/Loyalists and how our brand or product performs against those specific attributes?
- If a high percentage of Hostages exist, who do spend a lot of money with your brand, can we identify pathways to convert them into Loyalists or Apostles?
- Are key purchase criteria price-driven, service-driven or product-driven?
- What changes should we consider with respect to messaging, advertising, packaging, website user experience, based on purchase criteria to help appeal to and educate Hostages about our product and service such that they might become Loyalists?
Then, a collaborative effort between Martec and brand leadership can work to identify opportunities and map a plan to move customers from undesired quadrants into preferred quadrants. For example, for a case in which Hostages are a high-spending cohort, perhaps the roadmap will specifically focus on a plan to move Hostages into the Loyalist camp, and more Loyalists into the Apostle category.
Not a “One-and-Done”
Apostle Analysis is not just an academic exercise—it leads to tangible business improvements. For example, in a recent case with a manufacturing client, the Hostage segment comprised 14% of the customer base and spent significantly more than Apostles. This highlighted a critical risk: if competitors entered the market with better alternatives, this company stood to lose a substantial revenue stream. The company ultimately relied on Apostle Analysis to refine its product offerings and improve customer satisfaction, increasing long-term retention and positively impacting revenue.
In an era where customer loyalty increasingly dictates business success, Apostle Analysis provides a roadmap for strategic decision-making, both in the short and long term. By identifying high-value customers and addressing gaps in satisfaction, brands can cultivate a loyal customer base, reduce churn, and drive sustainable growth.
Implementing this approach helps companies shift their focus from merely attracting new customers to optimizing relationships with existing ones—maximizing both profitability and brand reputation.
However, this is not typically a study to be conducted only once and never again. As we will examine in the next article in this series, conducting “Lifetime Analysis” is key to making sure that the value of the brand is increasing over time, especially as the company grows, its market expands, and the stakes get higher with each evolution of the company’s growth.
Ken Donaven is a Partner with The Martec Group. He can be reached at [email protected].
